Indonesia's Economic Resilience in Historical Perspective: Comparing the 1998 Asian Financial Crisis, the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, and Contemporary Economic Conditions

Abstract

This study examines Indonesia's economic resilience by comparing the country's contemporary economic conditions with those experienced during the 1997–1998 Asian Financial Crisis and the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. A qualitative historical-comparative approach was employed using secondary data obtained from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, Bank Indonesia, and peer-reviewed scholarly publications. The analysis was conducted by systematically comparing key macroeconomic indicators, policy responses, and structural economic conditions across the three periods to identify recurring patterns of vulnerability and resilience. Literature was selected based on its relevance, credibility, and contribution to understanding Indonesia's macroeconomic development, with priority given to recent studies while retaining seminal theoretical references. The findings reveal that Indonesia's projected economic growth of 5.11% in 2025 reflects relatively strong macroeconomic stability but has not been accompanied by equally inclusive improvements in household welfare. Persistent structural challenges—including declining purchasing power, widening socioeconomic inequality, exchange-rate depreciation, and dependence on external markets—continue to constrain long-term economic resilience. The novelty of this study lies in integrating historical evidence from two major economic crises with Indonesia's contemporary economic conditions to reveal recurring structural vulnerabilities that are often overlooked in single-period analyses. The findings contribute theoretically by extending the concept of economic resilience beyond macroeconomic performance to emphasize the interaction between structural vulnerability, institutional capacity, and inclusive welfare.